The First Big Election Wave is Coming
South Africa, Mexico, India and the European Union all in a 12 day period
If I had a magic wand, one of the things I’d try to change is the number of major elections around the world in a short time frame. I understand why this happens. No one wants to hold elections in the Summer—especially Europe—or around the Holidays. So, you tend to see a wave of elections in late Spring and again in late Fall.
However, that sure does make it harder for those at various online platforms, researchers, and others who are trying to cover everything.
Case in point—the first and biggest major wave of elections is coming May 29 to June 9. During this timeframe, people in South Africa, Mexico, India, and the European Parliament will all go to the polls. Now, in fairness, India starts going to the polls on April 19, but the last one is on June 1, and the day the results are announced is June 4.
The next wave will be in the fall—though it will spread out a little bit more—when Brazil has municipal elections, the United States votes, and the UK is expected to as well.
Given that India’s first polling date is coming up fast, I thought I’d do a little update on where each of those countries is and any specific announcements from tech companies. As a reminder, my full database of election announcements for the online platforms is here.
Before we get into each country, there are some numbers I want to flag from Morning Consult that are worth paying attention to. The first is a series of questions about how many people in that country support democracy. Look at how strong India’s numbers are across everything.
From Morning Consult’s Global Political Risk Outlook, H1 2024
Then, take a look at the approval ratings for various world leaders. Look who is on top - Modi and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), the Mexican president.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval
Yet, recent reports by Freedom House rate India and Mexico as partly free countries. The Variety of Democracies says that India and Mexico have had a significant democratic decline.
You’ll see below some examples of why people are concerned about the direction of these countries. However, one cannot ignore these numbers. There are many smarter people than me who can explain why this might be happening, but I want to flag something I started to notice at the end of last year and is starting to get louder.
In December, the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) released its 2024 look ahead piece on the Indian election. This line stood out to me: “Democracy is not a Western endowment and need not have a Western texture and tonality.”
Countries with poor ratings from folks like Freedom House, the Economist Intelligence Unit, and Variety of Democracies often complain. We got pushback at Facebook for using them as part of our inputs when doing risk assessments before elections. We were told they were too Western-based. So this is not a new complaint. In 2019, ORF was complaining about the Economist rankings.
That’s why it caught my attention when I saw last week that the Modi government has been working with the Observer Research Foundation to release its own democracy index. We’ll have to wait for it to come out to understand what criteria it uses, but should this happen and potentially gain steam globally, we could start having more challenges to democracy at the fundamental level of how you define it. I don’t know the implications of all of this yet, but if you are in the democracy-building space, I would keep an eye on this.
And I’ll say it again—we don’t talk about India enough. Modi is likely to win again, and I wonder when he might start putting his weight around more on the global stage.
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Ok, let’s get to the elections!
South Africa - May 29
Freedom House Ranking: Free
V-Dem: Top 20-30%
Economist Intelligence Unit: Flawed democracy
The Associated Press says this could be the most pivotal election since apartheid ended since the ruling African National Congress could lose its majority for the first time since it came to power with the fall of apartheid 30 years ago.
This week, the ANC tried to stop a newly formed party, backed by ex-President Jacob Zuma, from running in May's general election but failed.
The Association of African Election Authorities (AAEA) adopted digital and social media principles and guidelines for elections. The Electoral Commission of South Africa supports this.
Meta’s Nick Clegg was recently in the country outlining how the company is working to protect the integrity of the elections in South Africa across its platforms.
No other platform has announced anything specific to the country, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t monitoring and doing work there. We don’t know what it might be.
MIT Tech Review says that AI is expanding across the continent, and new policies are taking shape. However, poor digital infrastructure and regulatory bottlenecks could slow adoption.
New research looks at how young Africans are vulnerable to anti-West propaganda and Phumzile Van Damme (whom I interviewed last year in a podcast on African elections) looks at how there is a need for innovative approaches to digital literacy and generative AI content verification to fight disinformation in the election.
Mexico - June 2
Freedom House Ranking: Partly Free
V-Dem: Bottom 40-50%
Economist Intelligence Unit: Hybrid regime
The current president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), cannot run again, and his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, is favored to win. All the leading candidates are women, meaning the country will elect its first female president.
AMLO was recently interviewed on 60 Minutes and pressed on the violence happening across the country, with many journalists and local candidates being killed. He uses a daily press conference that he livestreams online to push his narratives, including once saying a New York Times reporter’s number when he didn’t like her coverage.
The country has seen protests against AMLO’s moves to slash funding for the country's electoral agency, the National Electoral Institute, something the courts overturned.
Meta and TikTok have posted about their plans specific to Mexico.
I did a podcast with Pamela San Martin, a former member of the electoral commission and member of the Meta Oversight Board, about the election.
India - June 4 (Counting Day)
Polling dates are April 19, 26, May 7, 13, 20, 25, and June 1
Freedom House Ranking: Partly Free
V-Dem: Bottom 40-50%
Economist Intelligence Unit: Flawed democracy
India’s elections occur over seven polling days, and the results are not announced until June 4. The country has a parliamentary system, so people vote for a party, not a candidate. Narendra Modi’s BJP party is heavily favored to win a third term. The opposition has tried to form a bloc to compete with the BJP but has struggled to do so.
India has many parties at the national and state level and speaks 121 languages.
Shortly before the election days were announced, the Supreme Court ordered a government-run bank to disclose details of a controversial scheme that allowed people and companies to donate anonymously to political parties through units called electoral bonds. Indian media are scouring through who made these donations.
Also, days before the election, a senior member of the three-person election commission abruptly resigned. Two new people were added right before the election dates were announced, adding to concern about whether this will impact the smooth administration of the electoral process.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, a national opposition figure and chief minister of Delhi's capital territory, was arrested by India's financial crime-fighting agency on Thursday on corruption charges that his political party rejects. The U.S. encourages “a fair, transparent, and timely legal process.” Last, Rahul Gandhi—Modi’s closest competitor—was kicked out of Parliament and then reinstated after a conviction for mocking Modi’s name.
India has also come under fire for wanting to fact-check and ask for the removal of posts critical of the government (something the courts have put on hold). It recently had to backtrack a requirement to approve an AI model before it was released.
Since 2014, Modi and his team have embraced technology to reach voters, sometimes using shady tactics on apps like WhatsApp. The government recently sent a personalized letter to citizens via the platform that the electoral commission has told them to stop doing. The Modi campaign is also planning to rely heavily on influencers. AI meme wars have also started between the parties.
Meta and Google have announced their plans for this election:
Here’s my podcast with Scroll India’s political editor Shoaib Daniyal.
European Union - June 6-9
The European Union is a complicated place. Made up of 27 countries, they have their own governments and send representatives to the European Parliament. Some countries will hold their own polls simultaneously as these, and some will not. It gets super complicated, but the EU has this handy primer if you really want to get into it. Euronews has this election primer.
In reality, the EU elections tend not to get much attention. However, they do from tech companies because this is where they are most highly regulated, and many have their international headquarters in Dublin. This is the first election where the Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act will be enforced.
Ahead of those, many tech companies also signed onto a Code of Practice in 2018 that was updated in 2022. This code contained 44 commitments, and 128 specific measures companies had to follow. Just yesterday, the third set of reports outlining what they are doing to combat the spread of disinformation - with a particular focus on the EU elections - were released.
The EU also released guidelines for Very Large Online Platforms (VLOPs) yesterday on the integrity of electoral processes. Vice President Vera Jourová is also on a democracy tour including in the U.S. this week.
As part of these guidelines, European officials warned that they’ve seen the use of AI-generated deep fakes in member states and are pushing for labels.
There has been much conversation recently about how the far right in Europe is using TikTok, with one candidate in Germany being curtailed by the company.
Google, Meta, and TikTok have announced their efforts, and Microsoft, Twitch, and others have included information in the Code of Practice reports.