Summer of Chaos Continues
A look at the last six months and what the rest of the year might hold
The transition back to reality after spending time at the cabin in Wisconsin is always hard for me. I got really used to the laid-back pace of kayaking, reading, fishing, cooking, and playing cards. And while sometime alone after being around my family for a month was nice, it is also a little lonely sitting by myself in my apartment.
I’m finding this year’s transition a little bit harder given all the chaos happening in the news. Even though I knew this summer would be crazy, it doesn’t make living through it any easier. More than a few times I thought to myself that maybe I would just stay in Eagle River, get myself a nice little job, and not have to worry about everything burning around us.
Alas, I did not do that and I am back in DC trying to build up the energy to jump back into work. I’m finding it a somewhat daunting task. Looking back on the last six months there’s no doubt we continue to go through some massive transitions that we don’t quite know yet how they will play out. Just looking at the tech world we’ve seen:
The platforms struggling with how to handle issues with Russia invading Ukraine.
Musk trying to buy (or not buy) Twitter.
Meta further adjusted its strategy towards creators and unconnected content.
Sheryl announced she was leaving Meta after 14 years.
The release of the updated Code of Practice on Disinformation in Europe.
The passage of the Digital Marketing Act and Digital Services Act in Europe.
Potential new disinformation laws in Australia.
The debate over a new fake news law in Brazil.
President Obama jumped into the conversation about disinformation and the platforms.
Questions around TikTok and its data-sharing practices with China.
Jonathan Haidt’s column in the Atlantic about the impact social media has had on the last 10 years.
Television shows about Theranos (Dropout), WeWork (WeCrashed), and Uber (Super Pumped).
January 6th hearings and right now, the lack of focus on the role of the platforms.
Roe vs Wade decision and platforms struggling with abortion content.
Further questions about the future of Crowdtangle and a push for more transparency from platforms in general.
Elections in France, Colombia, Philippines, Hungary, Serbia, Australia, and the primaries for the midterms in the United States.
Platforms signing on with the Brazil electoral authority (TSE) to combat disinformation ahead of the October elections.
Twitter taking the Indian government to court over their takedown requests.
So, what does this mean for the next six months? Here’s what I’m keeping an eye on:
Elections: How issues of disinformation and other integrity issues actually manifest on the platforms and what the platforms do or don’t do. The closer we get to Election Day the more and more pressure - like this new op-ed in the Hill - will be put on the platforms to explain what they are or aren’t doing. Keep a close eye on Brazil and how platforms continue to handle political ads as well. Spotify for instance quietly announced they were accepting political ads again and in May Google made some changes to their political ad policies as well.
2024 Elections: The minute the midterms are done - and perhaps even sooner - we’ll start to see candidates announce for the 2024 U.S. elections. People will also immediately start asking the platforms questions about if they will allow Donald Trump back on the platform.
Regulation: I don’t think we’ll see any regulation in the United States around the tech platforms because if it doesn’t happen here in July it’s very unlikely before the midterms. However, we are going to start seeing how regulators enforce laws in Europe and the UK. Ofcom is already telling platforms to prepare for regulation now and there are concerns about how the European Commission will be able to properly enforce its new laws. Moreover, expect to see more laws in the States - especially when the new legislatures come into session after the midterms. Also, expect to see some of these laws continue to make their way through the courts.
The continued shift in content distribution: Facebook and Instagram as we once knew it is going to continue to change as they change the algorithm to surface more unconnected content to people. TikTok and other platforms are going to be even more prominent - which means more problems will follow. Text messaging will be a part of this - Biden just got on Community this weekend - as well as email. Which, speaking of email, keep an eye on Google’s FEC advisory request on how to handle campaign emails. I also find this request from Sprinklr interesting as they are wanting to build “an innovative, streamlined, and user-focused interface that attracts voters of all ages, with a particular focus on younger voters that might not have made extensive contributions to candidates and political committees in the past.”
Musk and Twitter: Will the purchase go through? Will they settle? This back and forth will play out over the next few months. I have no idea what will happen, but I’ll be watching.
Tech employees: Between Musk’s comments at a recent Twitter Q&A and Mark’s comments last week about how some employees probably just don’t belong at Meta and should quit, this is likely causing a lot of thrash for employees who are already very burnt out. I’ll be curious to see who else potentially leaves, what additional reorgs might happen, etc.
I’m sure there’s so much more that I’m missing and there will be plenty of twists and turns that I can’t even predict. Part of me is excited to see it all play out but a big part of me is terrified. I’m terrified of what we might not be thinking of, that this economic downturn does mean the platforms do less, and that it just continues to get harder to talk about the nuances of these highly charged situations. Personally, I wonder what it will mean for the work I hope to do in the long run. I also find myself a little scared and overwhelmed at everything I’ve promised and/or want to do in this space. Reliving the past to try to learn lessons from it is proving harder than I thought. Moreover, trying to figure out if what I’m doing is having any impact at all is also difficult. What does give me hope is that there are a lot of really smart and dedicated people in government, at companies, in civil society, in academia, in the media, and in business who want to figure this out. We just have to keep trying.
What I’m Reading
New York Times: On Conservative Radio, Misleading Message Is Clear: 'Democrats Cheat'
TechCrunch: Twitter, challenging block orders, sues India's government
New York Times: Opinion | She's Gay and a Republican. Is There a Place for Her in the GOP?
ProPublica: Google Allowed a Sanctioned Russian Ad Company to Harvest User Data for Months
Tim Miller: Why We Did It: A Travelogue from the Republican Road to Hell Hardcover
Reuters: Online disinformation stokes tensions as Kenya elections near
ENTRACKR: Indian government censors tweets critical of Indian internet censorship
Washington Post: TikTok Is the New Front in Election Misinformation
Think Tanks/Academics/Government
European Digital Media Observatory: 10 Recommendations by the Taskforce on Disinformation and the War in Ukraine – EDMO
Reset.tech: Report on French Election 2022
Aspen Ideas Festival: Tech is the New Power Paradigm
Pew: Twitter is the go-to social media site for U.S. journalists, but not for the public
Northwestern: The State of Local News
Gov.UK: Tougher protections for journalism added to online safety laws
Science Direct: The moral psychology of misinformation: Why we excuse dishonesty in a post-truth world
Law Review U of Chicago: Lawful but Awful? Control over Legal Speech by Platforms, Governments, and Internet Users
Job Openings
Protect Democracy: Technology Policy Advocate
Calendar
Topics to keep an eye on that have a general timeframe of the first half of the year:
Facebook 2020 election research
Oversight Board opinion on cross-check
Senate & House hearings, markups, and potential votes
August: Angola elections
August 2 - Arizona and Missouri Primaries (AZ Kelly defending Senate seat, MO open Senate race)
August 9 - Wisconsin Primary (Ron Johnson defending Senate seat)
August 9 - Kenya elections
September 11 - Sweden elections
September 13 - New Hampshire Primary (Hassan defending Senate seat)
September 13 - 27: UN General Assembly
Sept 20 - High level general debate begins
September 28 - 30: Athens Democracy Forum
October 2 and 30 - Brazil
November 8 - United States Midterms
Events to keep an eye on but nothing scheduled:
Code 2022 - Vox/Recode Silicon Valley Conference