2024: An Electoral Tsunami Headed Our Way
Why we need to start preparing now for an unprecedented year of elections
One evening in January 2020 I was sitting in a hotel bar in Washington DC talking with a mentor of mine about my career. I was no longer working on elections at Facebook and I was heartbroken about it. I was trying to figure out what a role for myself could be and where I could make an impact in the long term. Being the elections geek I am I started thinking through the elections calendar for the next five years.
I chose this period of time because every five years the world tends to have a huge year of elections. It happened in 2014 and again in 2019. I started then doing the math as to which countries would be going to the polls in 2024. There was the U.S. Presidential. Then I realized India and Indonesia. Mexico is on a six-year cycle and they last voted in 2018 so they would be up. As would the UK and the European Parliament. More digging also revealed Ukraine and Taiwan going to the polls.
It was my holy smokes moment. I went home and the next day I started looking at past election calendars to see if this collection of countries had ever gone to the polls for national-level races in the same year. I went back to India’s first elections in the 1950s and I couldn’t find a year like this before.
This is what started my obsession with 2024. I started thinking about how different those elections could look depending on what tech regulation was passed, how threats will evolve online, new platforms being used for political communication, and how the tech companies themselves invested in protecting the integrity of the elections.
I had no idea then what was in store for us over the last two years. Add issues of deplatforming, elected officials and candidates not accepting election results and my anxiety kept increasing.
In August of 2020, I wrote out my first proposal of what I thought would be needed to build resiliency for the 2024 elections (not to mention all the ones happening in 2022 and 2023). I told myself that I was going to work on these issues no matter what - whether it was at Facebook or not.
Since then rarely a day goes by when I don’t tell people about how many elections we’re facing in 2024. A few of you could probably recite my whole elevator speech given how many times you’ve heard it. My goal when I went out on my own in March of 2021 was to figure out how I could get an op-ed published to build awareness because I wasn’t hearing anyone else talk about 2024 in this way. It’s why I haven’t even written about it yet in this newsletter.
That’s why I’m so excited that the New York Times published my guest essay on this today. They leaned more into 2022 vs 2024 in the headline than I would have liked but the message about 2024 is basically the same in the op-ed.
So many people helped shape this over the last 10 months from Jonathan Rick who helped coach me on my writing to my colleagues at the Atlantic Council, Bipartisan Policy Center, Integrity Institute, National Democratic Institute, and International Republican Institute. My friends and former colleagues weighed in and provided support along the way. I’m grateful for the village I have supporting me as I blaze this new path for myself.
I’m also excited that SXSW has given me an hour slot on March 11 to talk more about how tech will shape these elections. If you’re headed to Austin, I’d love to see you.
Please send any feedback you have on the piece. This is only the beginning and I am nowhere near knowing how I would solve all of these problems. Something I’ve started working on is a vision for what I want the world to look like in January 2025. I’ve also debated if maybe 2026 is a better year as that’s the 250th birthday of America. I think that is crucial for knowing how we work our way back to making that vision a reality. I’ll be sharing that soon.
Thank you again for reading this newsletter and for all the feedback you’ve shared. I so appreciate it.
What I’m Reading
Bipartisan Policy Center: Prioritizing Achievable Federal Election Reform
Stanford: Platform Drama: ‘Cancel Culture,’ Celebrity, and the Struggle for Accountability on YouTube
Knight First Amendment Institute: A Safe Harbor for Platform Research
Knight Foundation: A Look at Key Trends in Student Speech Views Since 2016
FedScoop: House of Representatives to launch new digital service team
NYT: Amanda Gorman: Why I Almost Didn't Read My Poem at the Inauguration
Washington Post: Pro-Trump influencers find their audiences stagnate on alternative social media
New York Times: Cambodia's Internet May Soon Be Like China's: State-Controlled
Tech Policy Press - The Sunday Show: Accountability after the Facebook Papers
Euractiv: MEPs adopt Digital Services Act with significant last-minute changes
Tech Crunch: Europe’s top privacy regulator calls for ban on political microtargeting
European Sting: Digital Services Act: regulating platforms for a safer online space for users
Engadget: Google's new senior VP will explore technology's impact on society
Substack: Society has a trust problem. More censorship will only make it worse.
Washington Post: Steve Bannon was deplatformed. An obscure media mogul keeps him on the air.
Job Openings
Hewlett Foundation: Director, U.S. Democracy Program
National Endowment for Democracy: Senior Program Officer/Program Officer (Infospace Integrity)
National Endowment for Democracy: Senior Program Officer/Program Officer (Authoritarian Influence)
Key Dates/Events
I’m going to make this a regular feature each week - if anything to make sure I keep updating it for myself.
New this week:
February 18 - 20: Munich Security Conference
February 22 - 24: Knight Foundation Media Forum
April 3 - Serbia and Belgrade City Assembly Elections
June 6 - 7: Atlantic Council 360/Open Summit
Full Calendar
Topics to keep an eye on that have a general timeframe of the first half of the year:
EU Passage of DSA and DMA
Facebook 2020 election research
Oversight Board opinion on cross-check
Senate & House hearings, markups, and potential votes
February to March - State elections in Uttar Pradesh, India
February 18 - 20: Munich Security Conference
February 22 - 24: Knight Foundation Media Forum
March: UK Online Safety Bill
March: EU Signatories Finalize Code of Practice on Disinformation
March 9 - South Korea elections
March 11 - 20: SXSW, Austin, Texas
March 19 - Timor-Leste elections
March 27 - Hong Kong & Lebanon Elections
April: The Gambia elections
April 3 - Hungary, Serbia, Belgrade City Assembly elections
April 10 and 24 - France elections
May 3 - Ohio Primary (Open Senate race)
May 9 - Philippines elections
May 17 - North Carolina and Pennsylvania Primaries (Open Senate races)
May 21 (On or before) - Australia elections
May 23 (tentative): World Economic Forum, Davos
May 24 - Alabama and Georgia Primaries (AL open Senate race, GA Warnock defending seat)
May 29 - Colombia elections
June: Atlantic Council OS/360
June 6-10: RightsCon, Online
June 6 - 7: Atlantic Council 360/Open Summit
June 9 - 10: Copenhagen Democracy Summit, Copenhagen, Denmark
June 25 - July 1: Aspen Ideas Festival, Aspen, Colorado
June 14 - Nevada Primary (Cortez Masto defending Senate seat)
August: Angola elections
August 2 - Arizona and Missouri Primaries (AZ Kelly defending Senate seat, MO open Senate race)
August 9 - Wisconsin Primary (Will Ron Johnson run?)
August 9 - Kenya elections
September 11 - Sweden elections
September 13 - New Hampshire Primary (Hassan defending Senate seat)
October 2 and 30 - Brazil
November 8 - United States Midterms
Events to keep an eye on but nothing scheduled:
Code 2022 - Vox/Recode Silicon Valley Conference