2024 Geopolitical Risks Resources
Summary of 14 reports of what to expect this upcoming year
Marena Tedaldi contributed to this report
Executive Summary
The analysis below is from 14 reports examining the top threats and global themes anticipated through 2024 and beyond. The following aims identify the prevailing trends and areas of uncertainty or disagreement across leading analysts and outlets.
Resources:
Foreign Policy: Elections To Watch In 2024
Foreign Policy: 8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2024
Foreign Policy: 10 Conflicts To Watch In 2024
The Economist: Tom Standage’s Ten Trends To Watch In 2024
Observer Research Foundation: What To Expect In 2024
Gates Notes: The Road Ahead Reaches A Turning Point In 2024
Latin America Risk Report: Ten Predictions For 2024 That Are 80% Likely To Happen
Morning Consult: The Year Ahead In Geopolitical Risk
Chamber of Progress: 2024 Tech Policy Outlook
Chatham House Digital Society Initiative: Towards A Global Approach To Digital Platform Regulation
World Economic Forum: These Are The Biggest Global Risks We Face In 2024 And Beyond
Reuters Institute: Journalism, Media, And Technology Trends And Predictions 2024
The New York Times: Elections And Disinformation Are Colliding Like Never Before In 2024
Atlantic Council: Global Foresight 2024
Global Themes
The following global themes were repeatedly identified in our literature review and represent the likely influences on global affairs and technology policy in 2024.
Elections
In 2024, we will see the largest number of people impacted by elections than ever before, with seven of the world's ten most populous countries, including India, the United States, and Russia, expected to conduct national elections. Many are watching to see how democracy fares at a time when the spectrum of support for democracy across the world differs.
Environmental Changes
Throughout 2024, the analysts suggest the impact of extreme weather and environmental changes pose multifaceted risks on the global stage, potentially exacerbating existing threats not just this year but in the decade to come. Analysts also note the importance of the fight for critical minerals that will be a growing threat in the years to come.
Generative AI
In 2024, the influence of generative AI is poised to usher in significant global regulatory transformations. This, coupled with the risk of significant changes to the information environment, is especially heightened by the challenges posed by elections and other global threats. The ramifications of Generative AI, and the risk of inauthentic content creation underscore ongoing debates surrounding its potential positive and negative contributions, adding a layer of complexity and disagreement across analysts.
Global Power Struggle
The continued global power struggle in 2024 is characterized by the following:
The ascent of China and its complex relationship with Taiwan.
The assertiveness of Russia, especially in the context of NATO, Ukraine, and the Arctic region, and the geopolitical significance of the potential Russian annexation of Belarus.
The ongoing conflict in Israel/Palestine risking regional stability and further global involvement.
An uncertain global economy introduces risks to both the international financial landscape and diplomatic relations on a global scale.
Ideological Conflicts/Polarization
In 2024, Ideological Conflicts encompass a spectrum of issues, including the intersections of oil, technology, trade, and religion, contributing to global tensions. Specific flashpoints include the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the complexities of the Israel-Palestine relationship, and the pervasive societal polarization fueling interstate armed conflicts. The reports offered fragmented approaches to globalization and internet governance, representing differing outlooks on the impacts across 2024. The US will also hold elections amidst increased polarization following a divisive 2020 election cycle that remains contentious.
Information Environment
The global information environment faces profound changes in a year, featuring critical elections and ongoing conflicts worldwide. Analysts suggest an increase in the synthetic production of internet content and news, signaling a potential decline in information integrity and raising questions about the sustainability of the mainstream media in this evolving landscape.
Regional Themes
The following regional themes provide a brief overview of potential risks in each region, highlighting existing conflicts that the above global themes will likely impact. Many of the reports referenced in this analysis include additional regional threats that may not be mentioned below but represent a summary of the most significant threats in the region.
Americas
The upcoming United States election comes on the heels of years marked by heightened political polarization and increased far-right ideologies. Analysts anticipate significant risks in Latin America for 2024, particularly in the potential consequences of the upcoming elections in Mexico and the Dominican Republic. The year is expected to spotlight economic and political stability in Argentina and Brazil alongside the intricate dynamics defining relations between Venezuela and Guyana.
APAC
The geopolitical landscape in APAC in 2024 is fraught with risks from escalating tensions around Taiwan, posing continued threats to regional stability. Simultaneously, concerns persist over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contributing to an environment characterized by heightened uncertainties and potential regional violence. Analysts also share concern over conflicts in Myanmar and Pakistan, among other regional risks. India’s election is a must-watch as Prime Minister Narendra Modi vies for a third term amongst international controversy for his actions while having strong support at home.
Middle East and Africa
In the Middle East, the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict remains a significant focal point, with the potential to escalate and trigger broader regional conflicts. In Africa, notable risks include political instability following the coup in Cameroon, ongoing challenges in Sudan, the persistence of the conflict in Ethiopia, and the heightened tensions contributing to potential conflict in Niger, collectively shaping a complex geopolitical landscape across the continent.
Europe
In Europe, the risk landscape for 2024 is shaped by various geopolitical factors, including the potential impact of Ukraine's pursuit of EU membership, the persisting conflict between Russia and Ukraine, heightened tensions in Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the continued conflict between Israel and Palestine. Elections across the region add a layer of uncertainty and risk globally, as well as the implementation of new regulations such as the Digital Services Act.