A New Chapter of Panicking Responsibly
My first thoughts on the aftermath of the 2024 election
In his excellent post-election analysis,
called this the Y2K election - that we expected the worst and made it through fine. He says it was either because of overhyped risk or the right mitigations. I think it’s both of those things. Ultimately, we panicked responsibly, and it paid off … at least so far.But, now we enter a new chapter of panicking responsibly through a second Trump administration. My first draft of the opening for this newsletter was quite the downer. It was all about how frustrated I feel because while I’m not wild about the chaos a Trump presidency brings, I don’t think it’s the end of the world. But I live in a bubble of people for whom some do think it's the end of the world, and while I want to hold space for them as they go through their emotions, I also want to shake them into reality.
Our world has changed a lot. Many of it we saw coming but preparing for something is always different from living through it. Now, we’re tired from that journey, and we have to prepare for the next very quickly.
I’ve been reading and listening to a lot of post-mortems—even on vacation—and I wanted to share some of my favorites. There’s a lot to be learned from here as we all consider our next steps in 2025.
Bruce Mehlman’s 2024 election analysis - Bruce is one of the best in the business to pull a lot of information into a concise overview. Even though it’s 47 slides, it’s full of great insights. My favorite part is about how all trust is local, and that is why people trust influencers, substackers, and podcasters versus the media because they have more first-hand experience with them where as the media is broader. This encourages me to double down more on this newsletter, the podcast, and social media into the next year.
The GOP’s New Rising Electorate - I’m reading Patrick’s book, “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP, " which is fantastic. It perfectly describes the bubble I live in of primarily white college-educated people and how we are the minority in this country. It explains what I see and hear when I go home to Wisconsin or Kent Island on the Eastern Shore. His book makes me think about the bubble I’ve surrounded myself by and how I continue to ensure that I don’t get too swallowed up by it. It’s ok to be a Republican; I just haven’t surrounded myself by many people who reinforce that for me. I like that I can flow between all these different worlds, and one of my goals is to continue to ensure I’m piercing my bubbles.
, “Take your message to unexpected places.” Kristen was a guest on Kara Swisher’s podcast, and this was one of her takeaways. If you want to reach more voters, you need to go to the places where they are consuming information. Kristen is one of the smartest people in this business and one of my go-to's in the electorate. She has no problem piercing bubbles.
Pew Internet: America’s News Influencers - Pew has a new, in-depth study looking at who people turn to online for news, the topics they cover and their political orientation. It is fascinating stuff with one in five Americans – including a much higher share of adults under 30 (37%) – say they regularly get news from influencers on social media.
Brian Stelter: “Listen to young people and learn from their media habits.” This is one of Brian's many good takeaways in his piece. As a journalism major turned influencer, I struggle with the idea that one has to be either way. I like how Brian breaks things down, particularly about meeting people where they are, especially young people. This fits well with my obsession with the Jigsaw/Gemic study. We can keep wishing we lived in the world we used to, or we can recognize where things are going and adapt.
Oliver Darcy, on Meta spending this election saying what they didn’t want to be, said that Meta running away from politics was a definite storyline of this election. Bluesky is seeing a surge in users, which is another. While Threads and Meta are still doing perfectly fine, I think it is a good point that people don’t know what Threads is for if it’s not a Twitter replacement. Going forward, platforms will continue to be unable to run away from politics, so Meta and others will need to define what that means for them, especially as we enter the age of AI.
and the Ruthless Podcast - I checked out Erick Erickson’s show the day after the election and listened to the Ruthless podcast. These shows are two of my go-to's to stay on top of what is happening on the right. I’ve known all of these guys since I started in politics 21 years ago, and they play it straight. I disagree with Axios in calling conservative radio a loser in this election just because they are on radio and not a podcast. They are the same, just slightly different mediums, and many of these folks are also on social media.
The Ruthless podcast has gotten lost in the list of bigger podcasters like Joe Rogan that Trump went on, but they got every Republican presidential primary candidate outside of Trump. They did get Chris LaCivita—one of Trump’s campaign managers. They get numerous Republican officials as guests and will continue to do so. They may not have the numbers of others, but they have influence.
Here are a few other things I’m thinking about coming out of this election that are worth remembering:
Winners didn’t do everything right, and losers didn’t do everything wrong. This happens after every election, when the victors' strategy gets solidified as the winning playbook and the losers want to throw everything out and start over. There are lessons to be learned on both sides.
This was a close election. While the electoral college count spread looks large, the popular vote remains quite close, so let’s be careful about saying this was a blowout. I’m also obsessed with split ticket voters in places like Wisconsin who voted for Trump and Tammy Baldwin. I’m here for it. I want to learn more about these folks. People can’t be put in their typical boxes anymore, and that is shaking things up.
The midterms and 2028 aren’t far away. While Trump will be in office for four years (assuming nothing happens), Democrats could likely take the House in 2026, providing more of a check on Trump's agenda. And then, given how much we are in change election mode (see Bruce’s analysis again) right now, my money would be on a Democrat winning in 2028. All of this is to say that we need to start planning for these now, and for those worried about Trump, keep in mind that this is not forever.
The next battlefield is AI - An entire industry built out of the 2016 election around fighting disinformation. We sometimes forget that it started with foreign influence - Russians and Macedonian teenagers pushing fake news to make money. But then it started creeping into domestic affairs and has gotten politicized on both ends of the aisle. We’ve come a long way since 2016, but this work needs to adapt and evolve. AI will completely change how we consume information in the next four years, and if we want to shape what that looks like, we need to prepare now.
The anti-incumbency theme of 2024 will likely continue into 2025—there’s always an election happening somewhere in the world! Germany announced its elections early and will go to the polls on February 23. Canada, Australia, and Chile will also be voting, along with many other countries. Germany, Canada, and Australia all have left-leaning leaders now, meaning we will likely see a tilt to the right in all of them next year.
Yesterday, I shared a quote about how preparation always beats planning in the face of chaos. We cannot predict how the coming years will unfold. I would warn us about getting too complacent, saying this election period is over. We felt this same way in 2020 after Biden was declared the winner, and January 6th had yet to come. I’m not saying we will have something similar this time, but just be ready for some potential twists and turns.
In other words, we must continue to panic responsibly in this next chapter.
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I've been waiting for this issue! Great overview to help me think through the next year - thanks, Katie.