An Update on Elections in South Africa, India, Mexico and the European Union
Written by Marcus Mesina
This document aims to give you a general overview of these elections. It is not fully comprehensive and is updated as of May 20, 2024.
India’s Election 2024
Election Dates:
Phase 1: April 19, 2024
Phase 2: April 26, 2024
Phase 3: May 7, 2024
Phase 4: May 13, 2024
Phase 5: May 20, 2024
Phase 6: June 1, 2024
Government Type: Parliamentary (Vote by Party)
New Government Takes Office: TBD
General Summary
The political landscape is heating up as India gears up for the national elections in April - June 2024. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on a vigorous campaign trail, seeking a third term with promises of economic growth, enhanced national security, and improved social welfare. Opposing parties are unifying to challenge the BJP, as the Indian National Congress party focuses on issues like religious harmony and economic equality. This election is crucial for India’s democratic future.
What’s Happening in the Online Space
As India goes to the polls, it is impossible to avoid the wealth of AI-generated content being created - from campaign videos, to personalised audio messages in a range of Indian languages, and even automated calls made to voters in a candidate's voice. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his rivals have been targeted by deepfake videos, which have prompted police investigations. Viral videos of Modi and Mamata Banerjee dancing pose a risk of spreading misinformation rapidly, making it challenging for fact-checkers to keep up. Additionally, the Modi government has instructed Big Tech companies to remove deepfake content and to label media that has been manipulated and altered. (POLITICO: AI and deepfakes blur reality in India elections)
Modi’s campaign has extensively used WhatsApp, with over 400 million active users in India to spread his message. The BJP operates an extensive network of 5 million WhatsApp groups dedicated to targeting specific demographics, allowing the BJP to swiftly disseminate information and shape narratives, facilitating a significant advantage over other parties. (Rest of World: Inside the BJP’s WhatsApp machine)
To combat misinformation, Google has partnered with news publishers and fact-checkers, forming the Shakti Election Fact-Checking Collective. This initiative aims to detect and address online misinformation, including deepfakes. (Google News Initiative: Partnering with news publishers and fact checkers to tackle misinformation ahead of the Indian General Elections 2024)
Major tech CEOs, such as Elon Musk (Tesla) and Jensen Huang (NVIDIA), have expressed support for Modi, highlighting India’s strategic importance in the development of tech, business and AI. (CNBC: U.S. tech CEOs give India PM Modi boost ahead of election)
Key links:
India’s Electoral Commission
Background
General Election Overview: Here's what you need to know about the world's largest democratic election kicking off in India
Understand Why India’s Election Matters: Why India’s election is such a big deal | Start Here
In-Depth Analysis
Find Out When Exit Poll Predictions Will Be Released: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: When can you find out Exit Poll predictions?
Dive Inside Modi and BJP’s Plan for a Supermajority: India election: Inside Modi and BJP's plan to win a supermajority
Recent News
Polling Updates
In the fourth phase of India’s elections, 96 seats across nine states and Kashmir were contested. By 3pm local time, voter turnout was reported at 52.60%, according to ANI news agency. Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi urged voters to protect their democratic rights, while the Supreme Court dismissed a plea to remove opposition leader Arvind Kejriwal as Delhi’s chief minister amid his ongoing case for corruption.
Stay Updated with Real-Time Coverage: India election 2024 updates: Modi, rivals fight Phase 4 of Lok Sabha vote
Stay Updated on India’s Election Phase 4: India's election enters fourth phase as rhetoric over religion, inequality sharpens
Top Indian opposition leader released on bail by court enabling him to campaign in elections
South Africa’s Election 2024
Election Date: May 29, 2024
Government Type: Parliamentary (Vote by Party)
New Government Takes Office: June 2024
General Summary
South Africa prepares for a crucial general election on May 29, 2024, marking a significant moment in its democratic history. The African National Congress (ANC), led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, is currently experiencing a decline in support, raising the likelihood of a hung parliament. Key election issues include poverty reduction, corruption, unemployment, and energy supply problems. The ANC’s coalition may seek alliances with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, and the newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, backed by former President Jacob Zuma, to maintain power. Meanwhile, opposition parties such as the Democratic Alliance (DA), under John Steenhuisen, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), led by Velenkosini Hlabisa, are strategizing alliances to challenge the ANC’s dominance.
What’s Happening in the Online Space
South Africa’s elections also face disinformation and AI-related challenges. Google has pledged to support election integrity by partnering with the South Africa’s Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), Media Monitoring Africa, and TikTok. This initiative aims to promote access to information and educate political parties on addressing misinformation. South Africa moves to counter digital disinformation in African elections
Google’s measures include mandatory disclosure of AI content in election ads and funding a fact-checking campaign led by Africa Check. (IT Web: Google pledges to support integrity of SA elections)
Nick Clegg, Meta’s President of Global Affairs, visited South Africa to emphasize Meta’s commitment to supporting the IEC, highlighting Meta’s provision of extensive training on the use of its platforms to disseminate accurate information to voters in the region. (Diplomatic Watch: South Africa’s Electoral Body Partners Meta Against Misinformation)
Key links:
South African Electoral Commission
Background
General Election Overview: South Africa decides: Elections 2024
Election 2024 Key Issues: What are key issues in South Africa 2024 election?
Recent News
Polling Updates
South Africa’s election on May 29 will test the endurance of the ruling ANC as opinion polls suggest the party might receive less than 50% of the national vote for the first time in 30 years.
Discover South African Election Poll Results: eNCA election poll 2024, conducted by Mark Data - South Africans’ sentiments leading up to the elections
Understand the Impact of Israel’s War on South Africa: Will Israel’s war on Gaza sway South Africa’s election?
In-Depth Analysis
Analyze the Prospects of South Africa’s White-Led Opposition: Dream or mirage: Can South Africa’s white-led opposition win in 2024?
Explore Zuma’s Potential Impact: Can Jacob Zuma emerge as kingmaker in South Africa’s election?
Mexico’s Election 2024
Election Date: June 2, 2024
Government Type: Presidential (Vote by Candidate)
New Government Takes Office: October 1, 2024
General Summary
Mexico is preparing for a landmark general election on June 2, 2024, where voters will elect a new president, all members of the Chamber of Deputies, and the Senate of the Republic. This historic election will result in the country’s first woman president. The current ruling coalition, Sigamos Haciendo Historia, has nominated Claudia Cheinbaum, former Mayor of Mexico City, who is leading in the polls. Xóchitl Gálvez of Fuerza y Corazón por México, brings a diverse record as a senator and businesswoman. Jorge Máynez from Citizen's Movement is a significant contender, potentially influencing the election dynamics. Key campaign issues include economic policy, security, energy reforms, and migration.
What’s Happening in the Online Space
Mexico’s candidates leverage social media platforms, such as TikTok, using viral dances and memes to engage young voters. While these tactics increase their visibility, they often lack substantive policy discussions, leading to criticism that entertainment overshadows the important issues. (Rest of World: Mexico’s presidential candidates are dancing on TikTok, not shaping policy)
Freedom of expression online is under threat to Mexico’s citizens, with politicians misusing copyright laws to censor content. Advocates are urging for free access to information and currently monitoring these threats. (TechPolicy Press: On Eve of Mexico’s Elections, Threats to Freedom of Expression Online Grow)
Google has also updated its Political Content Policy in an effort to regulate election ads. Only certified agencies are permitted to run these ads, which aims to ensure compliance with a strict verification process. Meta and TikTok are also taking measures to support Mexico’s election integrity; Meta collaborating with industry partners to industry partners to identify and label AI-generated content. TikTok restricts AI-generated political content. All partnering with electoral authorities to provide accurate information. (PPC Land: Google updates Political Content policy for Mexico Elections)
Key links:
Mexico’s Electoral Commission
Background
Mexico is about to have its biggest election ever. Here's what to know
Explore Key Election Issues: 5 key issues at stake in the upcoming 2024 Mexican elections
Stay Updated with the Latest Poll Tracker: Poll Tracker: Mexico's 2024 Presidential Vote
Recent News
Polling Updates
Mexico will feature two female front-runners for the first time. Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party leads with 49% support, followed by opposing candidate Xochitl Gálvez with 28%, and Jorge Álvarez Máynez with 10%. Nearly 100 million Mexicans are expected to vote to fill 20,263 federal and local posts.
Explore the Influence of Mexico’s Cartels in Elections: The elections next door: Mexico's cartels pick candidates, kill rivals
Read About Mexico's Ruling Party Candidate's Slip: Mexico's ruling party presidential candidate slips, says outgoing leader led by 'personal ambition' | AP News
In-Depth Analysis
Examine Political Violence in Mexico's Elections: Political Violence in Mexico's 2024 Elections: Past and Future
Understand Cybersecurity Challenges in Mexico’s Elections: Cybersecurity Challenges in 2024 Mexico’s Elections
European Parliament’s Election 2024
Election Date: June 6 - 9, 2024
Government Type: Parliamentary (Vote by Party)
New Government Takes Office: July 2024
General Summary
The European Parliament elections, scheduled from June 6 to 9, 2024, are set to be highly significant, marking the tenth parliamentary election since 1979 and the first post-Brexit. This election could reshape the political landscape of the EU, with a notable rise in right-wing parties and potential shifts in power dynamics. Key parties include the European People’s Party (EPP), Party of European Socialists (PES), and the Greens, among others. Major issues driving the election include economic policies, migration, climate change, and EU governance reforms.
What’s Happening in the Online Space
Meta is under a major EU disinformation investigation, facing strict regulations and potential fines up to 6% of its global turnover for non-compliance with EU’s Digital Services Act. (CNBC: Meta hit with major EU disinformation probe ahead of elections)
The European Commission is also investigating Google, Apple, and Meta for potential non-compliance under the Digital Markets Act. TikTok is also on the hot seat, with a potential ban being considered. (Euractiv: EU Commission probes Alphabet, Apple, Meta; issues guidelines for addressing digital risks to elections)
AI chatbots have entered the EU elections, spreading false information. Reports found that chat bots from Google, Microsoft and OpenAI provided incorrect election details. (POLITICO: AI chatbots spread falsehoods about the EU election, report finds)
EU officials are wary of foreign interference, citing incidents regarding a German MEP’s assistant linked to Beijing and Russian propaganda uncovered in Europe. New EU rules require Big Tech platforms to monitor and address interference risks, ensuring integrity amidst tensions and rising nationalism. (The Cord: EU sets rules for Big Tech to tackle interference in European Parliament elections)
Moreover, the European Commission has called on the industry to commit to the AI Pact, which aims to implement measures ahead of the elections to mitigate the misuse of AI. This initiative seeks to bridge the gap before the EU AI Act's obligations fully come into force. (Inside Global Tech: European Commission Calls on Industry to Commit to the AI Pact in the Run-Up to the European Elections)
Key links:
European Parliament’s Decentralized Electoral Oversight
Background
Grasp the Stakes: Your primer on the European Parliament elections and how they will shape the EU
Election 2024 Key Issues: European election 2024: When it is and key issues you need to know
Recent News
Polling Updates
As the European Parliament elections approach, the conservative European People’s Party is projected to retain its lead. Opinion polls indicate a significant rise in nationalist right and far-right members, potentially leading to an increase from 17% to 25% in their seats. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats remains the second largest group, followed by the liberal Renew group, the Greens, along with smaller hard-right parties.
Understand the Far Right’s Censorship Claims in EU Election: Far right cries censorship after exclusion from EU election debate
Learn About Attacks on German Politicians and Historical Parallels Attacks on German politicians stir memories of Nazi past
In-Depth Analysis
Discover Potential Power Shifts: The road to the 2024 European Parliament elections
Stay Updated on Key Battles: EU election projection: German SPD, far-right AfD battle for second place