Summer of Chaos Continues
Taking stock of what’s happened, and what’s yet to come
Image generated from ChatGPT
I can’t believe it’s only been three weeks since I wrote about what Summer 2024 has in store for us. It’s been an eventful time, with plenty more twists and turns ahead. Let’s look at where we’re at, along with a few other things that caught my attention while chilling in Wisconsin and Canada.
Pressure on Biden to drop out - Listen, even I thought it was an extremely long shot when I said that I still thought there was a very small chance that either Trump or Biden might not be their party’s nominee. That looks potentially a lot more likely after Biden’s disastrous debate performance. This week is a critical one for him to stop the bleeding. I still think it’s a low possibility, but the chances are higher. Regardless, this continues to set up quite the contentious Democratic convention in August.
Side note: It’s a small sample size of the folks I talked to back home, but what I mainly heard was that most continue to be underwhelmed by both Biden and Trump, but Biden’s age was at the top of everyone’s mind - even before the debate.
Supreme Court decisions - We sort of got some answers from the Supreme Court on Murthy v Missouri and the NetChoice cases. However, they left a lot to be desired. I think it’s pretty clear that companies have a First Amendment right to moderate content, but lots of the details have been sent back down to lower courts. I don’t imagine we will see much between now and November, but next year, I suspect some Republicans will try to find new ways to pressure tech companies regarding content moderation. Overall, there is little resolution, and the waters continue to be murky.
Far-right make gains in the UK and France, but not as much as expected - You could almost hear the sighs of relief from across the Atlantic Ocean when France’s far-left and centrist parties prevented Marine LaPen’s far-right party from controlling the government. However, they still have quite a bit of power. In the UK, the Labour Party absolutely trounced the Conservatives, but there are some chinks in that victory - especially with Nigel Farage winning a seat for the first time. Farage is set on the 2029 elections and helping the far-right make even more gains. A Trump win in the US could bolster both of these parties and the AfD in Germany.
Side note: Both elections show the perils of when minority parties/candidates can siphon off votes from the main parties. The only reason LePen’s party was defeated is that the far left and center teamed up. The Conservatives lost as much as they did because of votes that went to Farage’s party. This is a good reminder that while RFK may not be at the top of our minds for the U.S., whoever he steals more votes from will likely be the loser.
Most people still don’t know much about AI - You should have heard me rant when the local Green Bay news tried to do a story to explain what AI is. I had half a mind to call the station to beg them to let me help them write the copy. It was painful. I also tried to explain it to my parents while we were driving to Canada. It was hard to explain how it differed from searching, and showing them how I could generate an image from a prompt helped the most. This is a good reminder for those of us seeped in this daily that overall public understanding, let alone use, has a long way to go.
Side note: I did notice that Meta is starting to do AI summaries on comment threads. The one below was posted on a page from the Eagle River Police Department about putting chairs out early for the parade. These types of summaries will change the game for search and newsfeeds. I’ll be curious how brands, influencers, and public figures adapt.
Threads turns one. Is being relevant as important as it once was? - Kurt Wagner had a good piece in Bloomberg about the anniversary of Threads and some of their strategic decisions - including not recommending political content. He talks about all the downsides in dealing with political content, but then he says, “Despite all of those negatives, though, Threads may overlook one critical positive: relevance. The political discussion on Twitter, perhaps more than any other topic, made the service important, urgent and necessary. I don’t think you can truly be a place where people go to learn ‘what’s happening as it’s happening’ if you are simultaneously trying to corral political discussions.” This reminds me so much of why platforms like Facebook, Twitter and YouTube embraced politics in the late aughts and early 2010s. A fight for relevance. I’ll be curious to see how this unfolds over the next six months as political conversations in the U.S. continue to ramp up.
Don’t despair, panic responsibly - There’s lots of panic going around. People are depressed about many of the things I mentioned above. Worried about all of the chaos. If you need some grounding, Frances Fukyama has you covered about why you shouldn’t despair about it all. Six months into the year, we’re not seeing any decisive trend in one way or the other. Calibrations are happening, checks and balances. This continues to make things murky overall and with no clear direction, but as Fukuyama says, “I think that the resilience of democracy cannot be taken for granted, but it can also be underestimated.”
At Meta, we had a saying that every day felt like a week. I suspect this will be the case for quite some time.
PS: TrustCon is only a week and a half away. Will you be there? Let me know, as I’d love to say hi. Make sure to check out the two sessions I’m doing. Both are on Tuesday, with one on “Tabletop Scenarios for T&S During Elections” and the other on “Election Integrity Best Practices: How to Prepare Your Platform’s Users for the Biggest Election Year Ever.”
Please support the curation and analysis I’m doing with this newsletter. As a paid subscriber, you make it possible for me to bring you in-depth analyses of the most pressing issues in tech and politics.