Ten predictions for the coming year
We’re a year out from the U.S. elections - here’s how I think some things will shake out
I won’t lie - it’s a little weird that 2024 is almost here. I’ve been talking about 2024 for nearly four years, and so much has changed in just that period.
To honor this anniversary and the official countdown clock, I wanted to make some predictions. Not about who will win - I’m not that stupid, though I still think there’s a chance that neither Trump nor Biden are our nominees - but more about the things that will impact the election. Plus, I want to make this a little more global than just the U.S.
Let me know your predictions in the comments and/or where you think I’m right or wrong! Also, this is not meant to be comprehensive. My original list was 20 plus!
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2024 Predictions
Artificial intelligence has some impact, but not as much as people think. We’ll see plenty of examples of AI used in various elections, but I don’t think the tools will be as widely adopted yet for it to be the absolute flood people are predicting. I think of this more like Obama’s use of Facebook circa 2008 versus where it was in 2012. Let’s talk again in 2026 and 2028, when the technology has had more time to be developed.
Breaking News: With the Senate forum on AI today, I’m not surprised some tech companies are making announcements on their plans. This morning, Facebook announced that specific uses of AI in political ads will have to be disclosed. They also announced this week that political advertisers cannot use any of their generative AI ad tools. Microsoft also announced new steps to protect elections, including helping candidates and campaigns maintain greater control over their content and likeness.
Trump sticks to Truth Social, but the tech companies are still pressured to deplatform him - and other candidates globally - at some point. I don’t see Trump using X as much as he did in the past. His message still gets around, and with all his legal battles, he’ll stay more under the radar. That said, we will see at least two or three moments globally where the platforms are pressured into deplatforming a candidate. Most will not.
The platforms are far quieter about their election plans than 2020, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t focusing on them. There is no upside for the platforms to advertise what they are or aren’t doing in elections worldwide. They’ll just get criticized, but they’ll still have teams of people doing this work. I don’t endorse this as I think they should be more transparent, but I think this is the reality. We must be careful about not focusing too much on one platform over another.
Influencers have an impact similar to that of bloggers in 2004. Remember when bloggers took down Dan Rather after some erroneous reporting about President Bush’s military record? I would not be shocked if influencers on Substack, TikTok, Instagram, or any platform do something similar this cycle.
Another view: When I asked some folks on Threads and Twitter what some of their predictions are, Jonny Torres says, “The media will be talking non-stop about the ‘Tik Tok vote,’ which will predictably have zero impact on the election.”
Down-ballot races drive turnout. I’ve written about Ad Impact’s report stating that out of the $10 billion projected to be spent this cycle, down-ballot races will spend more than the presidential. I think that those races will also be the reason people show up at the ballot box.
Turnout could be the lowest in a long time. While down-ballot races might drive turnout, fewer people might vote in this election than we’ve seen in the past. This is because they are burnt out on the news and not excited about Trump or Biden. I fear many people will just decide it’s not worth it to vote.
More Republicans and conservatives will stand up to protect the integrity of elections. On Tuesday, I participated in a closed-door event about conservative principles for building trust in elections. I’m sure this will shock some of you that these conversations are happening, but they are. And I think we will see much behind-the-scenes work by people on the right to combat those who might try to sow distrust in our election processes.
The Supreme Court will say government officials can’t block people from their accounts, that states like Texas and Florida can’t tell platforms like Facebook how to moderate content, and that the government can talk to platforms, but with significant guardrails. These decisions will shift the direction of regulatory talks in the U.S. going into 2025 from content-based solutions to more transparency and oversight.
We’ll see at least two upsets in global elections. In addition to two races not going how everyone predicted they might, I also think we’ll have a snap election or two that will further complicate the electoral field - looking at you, Canada, or Australia.
Election Day will be a crucial moment, but not the end of the election. This is a bit of a cop-out but an important reminder. Election Day is not the finish line. It’s the halfway marker of the journey we will all be on, and we need to focus just as much on what happens after Election Day with the counting of ballots, narratives, etc., as we did before it.
Let me know what you agree or disagree with! As you all know, I think we’re in for a lot of twists and turns this next year, which makes making predictions harder but also a bit more fun.
Please support the curation and analysis I’m doing with this newsletter. As a paid subscriber, you make it possible for me to bring you in-depth analyses of the most pressing issues in tech and politics. From now until November 15th I’m offering a birthday special of 20 percent off an annual subscription!
Fascinating post! Would be cool to see probabilities on how likely you think each prediction is (you can record these e.g. with https://fatebook.io )
I was going to offer that tired response of let’s see from a year from now how Katie did with her predictions. Instead, I will ask Katie to offer her 10 wishes for the coming year—some may overlap, hopefully, with predictions. In today’s world, more than ever, we need sharing of what we would like our society, country and world to look like, next year, or in some cases in next 5 or 10 years.