The Impossible Tradeoffs: What the 2026 Election Tech Forecast Reveals

After analyzing 12+ platforms, here are the patterns that matter and what to do about them

This post is part of “The AI x Election Tech Forecast,” a limited series unpacking how AI is reshaping the role and responsibility of major tech platforms in the 2026 election cycle. Each edition highlights the shifts happening now before the rest of us catch up. See the whole series here.

Editor’s note: This analysis was developed through collaboration with Claude from Anthropic. My process: I provided a brain dump of my strategic insights and insider knowledge. I then went back and forth with the tool on the structure and framework. Claude asked clarifying questions to fill gaps, then drafted the piece based on my answers. I edited and fact-checked the final output. For more on how I use AI see my ethics and transparency disclosure.📖 1569 words · ~6 min read

1 big thing: We’re living in the Impossible Tradeoffs era ⚖️

After analyzing Meta, X, TikTok, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Substack, gaming platforms, streaming services, and traditional media, here’s what’s clearest:

Every choice has painful costs. There are no clean answers.

Scale vs. Trust: Platforms with reach (Meta, YouTube, TikTok) have credibility problems. Platforms with trust (Substack, Anthropic) have scale problems. You can’t have both right now.

Innovation vs. Safety: Move fast and you enable harm (deepfakes, misinformation, political violence). Move carefully and you fall behind competitors who don’t care. There’s no safe speed.

Individual vs. Institution: Talented journalists want autonomy and direct audience relationships. Institutions need stability and branded authority. When individuals leave, institutions hollow out. When individuals stay, they resent constraints.

These tradeoffs shape what’s happening in 2026. Understanding them helps make sense of choices that otherwise look contradictory or cowardly.

2. The cross-cutting patterns 🔍

Six themes appear across every platform I analyzed:

Pattern 1: The Trump Alignment Question

Every platform is navigating their relationship with the Trump administration differently:

• Meta: $65M SuperPAC spending on pro-AI candidates

• OpenAI: Sam Altman’s full pivot from critic to Mar-a-Lago regular

• Anthropic: Calling Trump’s China chip policy “selling nuclear weapons to North Korea” while securing $200M Defense contracts

• Amazon/Bezos: Attending inauguration, killing WaPo endorsement, exploring news ventures

• Substack: Hands-off moderation aligns with Trump values, supporting independent journalism doesn’t

Who’s doing it best? Anthropic and Substack—they have clear values, communicate them publicly, engage where it aligns, and push back where it doesn’t.

Who’s struggling? Companies trying to have it both ways or hoping nobody notices their positioning.

Pattern 2: The Trust Collapse

• Traditional media trust: 28% (Gallup)

• Trust in national news: 56% (down 11 points since March 2025)

• When asked to name a news influencer: 50% named individuals, 7% named media outlets

Is this fixable? Yes, but it looks different than the past. We have to accept that AND understand we can still shape it.

The trust migration from institutions to individuals isn’t reversible. But individuals can be trusted or untrustworthy. That’s where the work is.

Pattern 3: The AI Revolution

AI is reshaping:

• Search: Google/Bing AI summaries replacing links

• Local news: Tools letting one reporter do what used to take five

• Campaign operations: Everything from voter modeling to content creation

• Platform moderation: Detecting patterns at scale, automating enforcement

• Information access: ChatGPT replacing Google for some queries

What’s overhyped: AI replacing human judgment in high-stakes decisions

What’s underhyped: AI enabling local news renaissance, campaigns doing things we’ve never seen before

The Panic Responsibly principle: The revolution is huge. Don’t be frozen by voices at the extremes (utopian or dystopian). The middle path is where real work happens.

Pattern 4: The Fragmentation Problem

Too many platforms. Scattered audiences. No unified strategy possible.

For campaigns: Be smart about where YOUR audience is. You don’t have to be everywhere.

For users: Be thoughtful and deliberate about what information you consume. Don’t just let the algorithm feed you what it thinks you want. Your actions (what you click) might not match what you SAY you want. Pay attention to that. Make sure your actions align with your values.

The upside of fragmentation: Competition. Not just a few people controlling our information. That matters for democracy even when it makes strategy harder.

Pattern 5: The Republican AI Fracture

Trump is pro-AI and hands-off regulation. 2028 contenders like Josh Hawley and Ron DeSantis are taking harder anti-AI stances.

GOP candidates in 2026 will test different AI messages. 2028 contenders are watching.

Who wins? The candidate who acknowledges downsides, has solutions for addressing them, prepares people for the future, AND highlights the good things AI can do.

Not fear-based. Not blind optimism. Grounded in reality.

Pattern 6: The “What Actually Works” Mystery

We have 18 years of campaigns using gaming (since Obama 2008). We still don’t know if it works.

We have politicians on Substack, TikTok, Fortnite, Discord, Twitch. We don’t have good data on effectiveness.

What I suspect works: There’s no silver bullet. What works is being smart and strategic about who your audience is, where they are, and what content they want.

Don’t be afraid to do things differently than others depending on your audience.

3. The 2026 Midterms Field Guide 📋

What WILL matter:

YouTube and Facebook: Non-negotiable. Largest reach, most diverse audiences.

Creators of all stripes: Individual journalists, influencers, podcasters. They have the trust institutions lost.

Video: Vertical, horizontal, long-form, short-form. Video dominates attention.

What I’m watching:

• Podcasts and streaming shows taking over daytime/late night TV and evening news

• Role of Substack and newsletters for sophisticated audiences

• Whether campaigns figure out how to use AI in genuinely new ways

What WON’T matter (or will be wasted spend):

Linear TV: Campaigns will still overspend here because consultants know it and make money off it. But the audience keeps shrinking.

Platforms where your audience isn’t: Stop trying to be everywhere. Be strategic.

What MIGHT surprise:

Discord organizing: Gen Z coordination happening where campaign operatives can’t see it.

Local news AI renaissance: Small teams doing what used to require newsrooms.

Gaming platforms: If even ONE campaign proves ROI, adoption accelerates.

Streaming news: Amazon, Netflix, or another major streamer making serious news play.

4. The 2028 Setup 🎯

The 2026 midterms are the testing ground for 2028 presidential strategies.

What 2028 contenders are watching:

• How campaigns use AI (content creation, voter targeting, operations)

• Which media outlets/platforms actually move voters

• What online ad formats work vs. waste money

• Which messages resonate (especially on AI)

What 2028 contenders need to know:

What works in 2026 might be totally different in 2028. Get comfortable pivoting even faster than you have in the past.

There will be information formats—especially with AI—that aren’t even created yet that campaigns will use in two years.

The 2028 media landscape will include:

• More consolidation (Netflix/Warner Bros, others)

• More individual journalists going independent

• More AI tools for campaigns and journalists

• More platforms with political content policies shaped by 2026 experiences

• Maybe—MAYBE—one major streamer opening to political ads

5. The bets I’m making 🎲

By end of 2026:

First bundling of independent creators: Independent journalists/creators band together to build something new. Shared business infrastructure, collaborative events, mutual support—while maintaining individual brands.

Campaign AI breakthrough: A campaign uses AI in ways we’ve never seen before, allowing them to contact and reach voters in totally new ways. This becomes the case study everyone copies (or tries to).

Streaming news deal: A media outlet makes a deal with Amazon, Netflix, or another major streamer for news programming. Election night 2026 coverage happens partly on streaming.

By 2028:

At least one major streamer allows political ads: Probably Amazon Prime. Competitive pressure becomes too great.

Traditional media continues hollowing out: More talent leaves for independent platforms. Remaining institutions struggle to compete.

Local news renaissance emerges in foundation-supported markets: Knight, Google News Initiative, others. Places with investment thrive. News deserts get worse.

AI becomes table stakes: Campaigns without sophisticated AI strategy are at massive disadvantage.

YouTube exclusive presidential debate: Not co-hosted with traditional news. Independent journalist moderates. Gatekeepers officially lost control.

Beyond 2028:

“Traditional media” becomes meaningless category: Successful models are individual brands, local news co-ops, AI-augmented small teams.

Platform consolidation continues: Fewer platforms, more concentrated power.

Trust continues fragmenting: No shared information sources. Democracy has to figure out how to function in this reality.

One last thing: You can’t control the landscape, but you can control how you navigate it 🧭

I created “Panic Responsibly” in 2023 when it felt like we were all about to be paralyzed by fear of what AI could do to elections.

Three years later, that fear is still there. But now it’s joined by fear about:

• Trust collapse

• Information fragmentation

• Platform consolidation

• Foreign interference

• Domestic disinformation

• Democratic backsliding

The list grows. The landscape shifts constantly. The tradeoffs get harder.

Here’s what I keep coming back to:

You can’t control the landscape. But you can control how you navigate it.

You can choose to:

• Be thoughtful about where you get information

• Support journalism and platforms doing good work

• Hold platforms accountable when they fail

• Build audiences based on trust, not tricks

• Use new tools responsibly

• Stay grounded when others catastrophize

And when it all feels overwhelming—and it will—you can choose joy. You can take the next best step forward. You can be part of figuring this out instead of frozen by it.

I have a hard time knowing what the future holds. I’m trying to look up at the horizon instead of getting paralyzed by what’s happening today.

That’s all any of us can do. 💙

Thank you 🙏

Thank you for reading this entire series.

I wrote 12 pieces in one week analyzing Meta, X/Bluesky, TikTok, Google/YouTube, OpenAI, Anthropic, Substack and newsletter platforms, second-tier social platforms, gaming, streaming, and traditional media.

It was an experiment—both in format and in whether I could actually pull it off.

I’d love your feedback:

What did you agree with? What made you think differently?

What did you disagree with? Where am I missing something important?

Would you like more series like this? Deep dives across platforms? Different formats? Other topics?

You can reply to this email or reach out however works for you. I read everything.

And if you found this valuable, please share it with someone who might benefit. The information landscape is changing fast. We all need to understand it better. 📊