The Real Battle Isn't Traditional vs. New Media—It's Individuals vs. Institutions
How trust, technology, and fear are reshaping the news landscape for the 2026 elections
This post is part of “The AI x Election Tech Forecast,” a limited series unpacking how AI is reshaping the role and responsibility of major tech platforms in the 2026 election cycle. Each edition highlights the shifts happening now before the rest of us catch up. See the whole series here.
Editor’s note: This analysis was developed through collaboration with Claude from Anthropic. My process: I provided a brain dump of my strategic insights and insider knowledge. I then went back and forth with the tool on the structure and framework. Claude asked clarifying questions to fill gaps, then drafted the piece based on my answers. I edited and fact-checked the final output. For more on how I use AI see my ethics and transparency disclosure.
📖 1609 words · ~6 min read
1 big thing: Individuals are beating institutions 👤
Here’s the shift I’m watching: When Pew asked Americans to name the first news influencer who comes to mind, 50% named individuals. Only 7% named media outlets.
The top individual names: Philip DeFranco (3%), Tucker Carlson (2%), Ben Shapiro (2%), Under the Desk News (2%), Donald Trump (2%), plus Joe Rogan, MrBeast, Candace Owens, Elon Musk, and more.
Why it matters: The category “traditional media” is collapsing not because people stopped consuming news, but because they trust individuals over institutions. This isn’t traditional vs. new—it’s personalities vs. brands.
2. Cable news: Declining but not dead 📺
January 2026 cable news viewership:
Fox News:
Primetime: 2.046M total viewers
DOWN -26% total viewers vs. January 2025
Still dominant (all top 13 shows except Maddow at #10)
The Five: 3.732M viewers (most-watched cable news show)
MSNBC (MS NOW):
Primetime: 887K total viewers
UP +21% total viewers vs. January 2025
Rachel Maddow Show: 1.881M viewers (only non-Fox show in top 10)
CNN:
Primetime: 660K total viewers
UP +26% total viewers vs. January 2025
Strongest growth: +35% vs. December, +96%
The pattern: All three networks grew month-over-month in January due to active news cycle (Venezuela military action, Minnesota ICE unrest). But year-over-year, Fox is declining while CNN and MSNBC grow.
What it means: Cable news isn’t dead—it spikes during major news events. But Fox’s year-over-year decline (-26%) while maintaining dominance shows the overall cable audience is shrinking. The pie is getting smaller even as Fox keeps the biggest slice.
3. Digital news: The winners and losers 💻
Traffic rankings (SimilarWeb, December 2025):
NYTimes.com: 445.2M visits
CNN.com: 267.5M (-25% YoY)
FoxNews.com: 205.9M (-19% YoY)
Substack.com: 80.8M (+35% YoY)
The success stories:
New York Times:
12.33M total subscribers (all products)
Added 460K digital subscribers in Q3 2025 (biggest jump in years)
Targeting 15M subscribers by end of 2027
Revenue up 9.5% to $700.8M
Strategy: Bundling (News + Cooking + Games + Wirecutter + The Athletic)
Semafor:
$30M new financing
$40M revenue, $2M EBITDA—profitable after just 3 years
Key investors: Penny Pritzker, Thomas Leysen, KKR’s Henry Kravis, David Rubenstein
Expanding: Daily publications for decision-makers, global convenings, new markets (Gulf, Asia, Africa)
Axios:
Built on “Smart Brevity” formula
Diversified model: Subscriptions, events, advertising, Smart Brevity consulting
Respected by busy professionals who value efficiency
The struggles:
Washington Post:
Down -22% YoY traffic
Bezos killed Kamala Harris endorsement in 2024 (subscriber revolt)
Massive layoffs
4. The trust collapse 📉
Gallup (2025): Only 28% of Americans have “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in newspapers, television, and radio. Down from 31% last year, 40% five years ago.
56% trust national news organizations (down 11 points since March 2025, down 20 points since 2016)
70% trust local news organizations (down from 80% in March, 82% in 2016)
Why people trust influencers over institutions (Pew):
Help understand current events (54%)
Faster at reporting (54%)
More authentic (49%)
Different perspectives than traditional media (46%)
5. Institutions trying to co-opt individuals 🤝
Traditional media sees the shift and is trying to adapt:
Washington Post “Ripple“ (mid-2025):
Partnering with independent creators, Substack writers, outside columnists
Hosting external commentary on WaPo platform
Trying to diversify opinion content without hiring full-time staff
CNN “Creators“ (launched Oct 2025):
30-minute weekly show from Doha’s Media City Qatar
Features multiplatform content creators “each with their own unique background, interests, skills and perspective”
Trying to capture influencer energy under CNN brand
The tension: Can institutions successfully partner with individuals who built audiences precisely because they’re NOT institutions? Or will talented creators just build their own platforms and leave?
What's emerging: The next wave of influencers won't just be individuals broadcasting—they'll be conveners, Emily Schario, Head of Content, The B-Side, Boston Globe Media said at Knight this week. People who bring communities together, not just talk at audiences. Think outside the inbox. This shifts the individual vs. institution dynamic: maybe the future is individual conveners building micro-institutions around shared purpose.
What I’m watching: Whether reporters within institutions build their own audiences and then leave for more autonomy and money. News orgs will have to find ways to put reporters front and center while enticing them to stay.
6. Local news: Two competing paths 🌅
I’m at the Knight Media Forum this week, genuinely encouraged by how many local outlets are here supported by Knight and other organizations.
But there’s a battle over local news survival.
This week’s Senate hearing on media ownership:
The consolidation argument: Curtis LeGeyt (National Association of Broadcasters) called raising the 39% ownership cap “existential.” Local broadcasters can’t compete with Google/Facebook for ad dollars without scale. Over half of broadcast newsrooms aren’t profitable standalone.
Trump and FCC Chairman Carr support Nexstar’s $8.6B Tegna acquisition. Trump: “Letting good deals get done will help knock out Fake News.”
The opposition: Chris Ruddy (Newsmax): Raising the cap “means two or three corporations will eventually own most stations and control almost all local news.”
Steven Waldman (Rebuild Local News): “In many cases, merger cuts local news.” The concern is number of reporters, not hours of programming.
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA): “You’re going to own three TV stations and give me general programming from New York, which I don’t want.”
Legal fight coming: Does FCC have authority to raise the cap without Congress? Guaranteed litigation either way.
Two paths forward:
Path 1 - Consolidation: Fewer companies, generic programming, fewer local reporters
Path 2 - AI-enabled small teams: Independent operations doing more with less
How AI helps local journalists:
Automating routine coverage (high school sports, council meetings)
Analyzing complex data (LocalLens, DataTalk for public records)
Accelerating workflow (transcription, translation, social media)
The opportunity: Massive gaps in local information. 46% gap in politics coverage, 40% in environment, 39% in economic opportunity.
The proximity paradox: 44% of Americans say it’s difficult to get neighborhood information vs. 26% for national news. Harder to learn about your community than another country.
What I’m watching: Nexstar-Tegna decision (day 71 of 180-day review), ownership cap fight, which model proves sustainable.
My bet: Both happen. Consolidation in major markets. AI renaissance in foundation-supported communities. News deserts where neither happens.
The media landscape isn’t just fragmenting — it’s restructuring around trust in individuals over institutions. For campaigns, that changes everything about where you spend time and money.
Paid subscribers, keep reading for: why radio still matters more than campaigns think, the fear dynamic shaping how voters consume news, and my complete playbook for how 2026 campaigns should rethink their communications strategy entirely.
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